I like what ifs

[Friedrich Werner]

Hey guys
I like What ifs, you like what ifs, lets do a what if...

Thought it might be neat to do a "what if" every week. Every monday morning an individual will post a "what if" and then the topic will be closed the next sunday night. You get a week to polish up on your history and present an argument. Time period allowed is 1934-1943. I am going to post one below and we'll see how it goes. Next week, if this one went well, someone else can step up and write one out. Maybe we cna make a schedule? Anyways here goes nothing...


What if #1

Bulagria assists Italy October 1940

In September 1940, Mussolini wrote to King Boris III of Bulgaria that Italy had plans to invade Greece in 1 month's time. Bulgaria had land claims to Greek Thrace, and Mussolini suggested that if Bulgaria opened up a Northern Front against Greece that these land claims would be respected come War's end. Bulgaria had recently acquired Southern Dobrudzha from Rumania in peaceful negotiations mediated primarily by Germany and Italy earlier that Fall and as a result bulgarian moral and nationalism was extremely high. In reality, Boris declined the invitation, sticking to Bulgaria's quest for neutrality. Bulgaria's army at the time was being armed by Germany, but Bulgaria needed time to mobilize. A full mobilization could possibly crush the recently stabalized Bulgarian economy. Historically, Greece had 8 divisions on the Bulgarian border during the Greco-Italian War and Turkey had several divisions mobolizing as well. Bulgaria also had the argument that Turkey, which it also bordered to the South, might get involved since it had a Defensive Pact with Greece. Since Bulgaria did not join the Axis Powers until Spring 1941, Turkey would not have to worry about Germany stepping in on Bulgaria's side, but could instead depend upon Western and Soviet moral support and probably Soviet military assistance in interfering. Germany was pushing constantly for an alliance with Bulgaria however and with 600,000 German troops already stationed in neighboring Rumania, Bulgaria might, in a debacle, be able to call upon German intervention.

This all being said, would Bulgaria have profitted from a war with Greece in 1940? Would a Bulgarian-Greco Front have prohibited the Greek counteroffensive in the Winter of 1940, allowing Italy to properly combat the Greek forces that would also be dealing with a conflict to their North? Do you think neutral Turkey would have gotten involved? And what about Yugoslavia; would it stand for such open Aggression by not one, but two countries in the Balkans, who also had land claims to his country? (Remember that Yugoslavia, up until the coup in March 1941, was extremely pro-Facist) Finally, which of the Great Powers would get involved if things got out of hand? (Britain, Germany, Russia, America)

You decide...

[Wilhelm Stahlschmiedt]

Wait I'm confused. I'm pretty sure that Bulgaria did in fact participate in the war against Greece with Italy and gained territory to the sea. They were actually the only Axis nation of the war to keep gained territory after the 1945, so in that sense they benefited from it, even if it was from Romania.

[Friedrich Werner]

Bulgaria joined after it signed its pact with the Axis powers in the Spring of 41, not prior. Bulgarian troops were as well not put on the front lines against Greek soldiers. German troops of the German XII Army, stationed in Rumania under Field Marshal List were allowed to pass through Bulgaria on the day the pact was signed (1 March 1941) allowing Germany to strike Greece from the North East. Instead of fighting the Greeks, the Bulgarian armies were placed on the Bulgarian-Turkish border behind which the 16th Panzer Division was placed as a reserve incase Turkey decided to honor its defensive pact with Greece.

So what I explained above is commonly known as Operation marita, which was the German invasion of Greece and Yugoslavia. The Grecco-Italian War started the previous Fall when an italian Expeditionary Force of initially 55,000 invaded Greece via Albania and lasted until Mussolini eventually called off the Italian large scale Winter Offensive in December that the Greeks, with British support, were able to fightoff.


Thus the "What If' being thrown out here is what kind of impact Bulgarian military involvement in Fall 1940 would have had on the Balkan region. Let's say Bulgaria entered the fight not as an Axis Power, but in an Offensive Military Pact with only Italy.

A few more notes you might want to consider:
-In 1940, Yugoslavia was pro-facist and was expected to become another member of the Axis Powers in early 1941. It was not until the disbandment of the Yugoslavian Parliment by King Alexandar in March 1941, did Hitler then have to re-adjust his Operation Marita to include the invasion of Yugoslavia with that of Greece.
-Although very friendly with the Western Powers, Bulgaria was economically shunned by Britain and had turned to Germany 2 years prior for weapons and equipment. Thus a British embargo on Bulgaria would have no real economic impact. However a British naval Expedition into the Black Sea could be a possible threat.
-Soviet Union and Germany were in a non-aggression Pact, the Balkans was in the sphere of influence of germany, and both powers were trying to make compromises so that Russia would join the Axis Military Alliance.

[August Schreiner]

This is a great idea.

Bulgaria on June 22nd, 1941 had 14 divisions (12 infantry, 2 cavalry so if we can go back around 8 months earlier in regards to the invasion of Greece I'm sure it's of a similar organization save for the two infantry divisions raised in Macedonia. This in combination with the initial 8 or so Italian divisions sent against Greece's 15 divisions (Peacetime, August 1940) would probably favor the ones on the offensive at least in terms of numbers of sheer manpower involved (this including Italian reinforcements coming later). Undoubtedly the Italian invasion from Albania into the mountainous region of Epirus would bog them down concerning terrain and the early winter. Bulgaria using the majority of her forces (12 divisions) would strike down into Thrace and run into significant defenses around the Thessaloniki fortress. Bulgaria, being a neighbor of Greece therefore being more familiar with the territory, terrain and climate would probably adapt faster than their Italian counterparts. I'm sure some elaborate plans originating from the previous two Balkan Wars would be used to help accentuate a new offensive plan. Perhaps this plan would be revealed to Italy and they would act accordingly if elements of the two armies were to meet at a certain point. If a combined offensive by both countries was conducted simultaneously I predict that the protracted fighting that occured would be reduced and Great Britain would probably not intervene due to the potential outcome that if she did, both Italy and Bulgaria would form a joint-coalition and fend them off. If Wikipedia is to be trusted, it mentions that in the second phase the Italians would go forth from Western Macedonia to Thessaloniki after establishing themselves in Epirus. Perhaps Macedonia or Thessaloniki would be places in which both of the armies could come in contact.

Undoubtedly Greece would be carved up and its extremely likely that Bulgaria would get Thrace and much of Macedonia. Italy would get more territory in the west therefore helping to fulfill the dreams of Mare Nostrum in the Eastern Mediterranean. It's another question whether neutral Turkey would intervene or not, given what happened throughout the region historically in 1940-1941 it's likely that she would not intervene in this alternative case scenario either. If it all manifested this way, perhaps Germany would NOT have to intervene in the Balkans whatsoever therefore commencing Barbarossa a season earlier if other things went properly according to plan.

Sources for Order of Battles:
http://niehorster.orbat.com/027_greece/40-08-15/_p-army.html
http://niehorster.orbat.com/032_bulgaria/1941_oob/_army_41.html
http://www.comandosupremo.com/Greece1940.html Epirus Sector, Ciamuria Army Corps

[Michael Steiner]

I can appreciate what if's.

Schreiner - as usual, very good read, and well put.

I dont believe though that a Italian/Bulgaria push on Greece would not have succeeded. I believe it would have taken the additional force of the German army, (thus not falling far from what really happened).

Italians would not have faired any better in the Baltic States than they did in Africa. They would have been very difficult to deal with, as they were in the Italian/Germany coalition.Bulgaria would not have been strong enough to overcome the Italian short-comings and defeat Greece.

Reason - I have been reading Field Marshal Kesselrings memoirs for sometime now. On more then one occasion the coalition between Italy/Germany had major problems... fuel and supplies being one. Rommel needed supplies and there were none to be found, meanwhile the Italians had plenty sitting on Docks, yet these were claimed by the Italian Navy as their own. Also he mentions how the Italian Divisions were poorly trained, ill equiped and really no better then Conscripts.

[Michael Josef Schwendau]

I don't think an alliance of Bulgaria and Italy would have panned out. With the weaken front on Bulgaria it would have been very tempting for the Russians to roll in. (That is if Stalin ignores the Hitler-Stalin Pact) As for Greece, the Greek army did extremely well in the high country. They held off 1.SS for a good deal of the drive in. But Greek industry would not have and could not have matched what Germany was rolling on them with. The British influence on the Greeks was too much. If anything the Balkans was a wake up call for how crappy the British Battle Order was at the time.

I suppose and additional "what if" would be, What if Churchill actually committed to supporting the Greeks in full with material and men? Drawing troops out of Egypt to support them? Would have left a juicy lightly defended Canal. No doubt the Italians would have screwed that up though, see Ethiopian campaign.

I have no doubt that the success of the push would go to the Axis though. As Steiner clearly stated. The catch I believe lays in the fact that a lot of the minor Axis nations were way behind on technology and without the support of the German war machine, would have been out in the wind or stalemated until relief came in the form of Blitzkreig.

Another "What if" to all of this is :

"What if" Franco Spain joined the Axis in '40. When the push in to the low countries began. I think southern France would have capitulated much faster and given them better bases of operation for the U-Boats to sail from into the Atlantic, putting a strain on shipping to Britain. They would have pushed the British out of Gibraltar and sealed the Med off from the Allies completely. Making the Suez Canal a completely useless ditch in the desert.


In a greater strategic roll, if the Axis powers did cohesively make these moves. Allowing the Brits to land in Greece and then move on Gibraltar a week later, they would have essentially stretch a line of supply and communication to a snapping point, cutting off the Lion's tail at several spots. If you control the Med you control all of north Africa. The Romes showed us that. The Russian Black sea fleet would have been bottled up and a useless group of bath tub toys. Not saying they wouldn't break out, but at that point. Stalin would not have committed to supporting a Western power attack at all due to the Hitler-Stalin Pact.

He who defends all, defends nothing! Frederick the Great

[August Schreiner]

Perhaps I'm being too optimistic and over-estimating with the invasion forces involved and under-estimating the heroic defenders too much. However, if one thinks about this whole scenario a bit more than twice, an elastic Greek defense plan would be hard to come up with to repel both forces especially since Greece lacked motorized transport and armored vehicles (except in the case of artillery batteries) thereby hampering her efforts to switch entire units rapidly across the country. Perhaps the Metaxas line would still prevail in this case.

Steiner, I agree with your statements overall but one has to consider that when Germany invaded the conditions were much more ideal and they had hind-sight in regards to the disaster that had befallen their Ally just 6 months earlier. Also, in regards to the units fielded by the Regio Esercito, it depends on which ones and types you're considering. In terms of the German order of battle, they were far better suited to the task, especially in regards to sending more mountain troops than the Italians.

Anyways, I have not read enough about Greek defense and fortifications to make a truly good analyzation. I've just talked about numbers, troops, geography and climate.

Schwendau, interesting idea for the next what if question. I'll talk about potential events after the campaign in France. I think if Spain had joined she would have provided support for Axis forces in north Africa through maintaining or even bolstering the defenses in Spanish Morocco which would undoubtedly influence the Allies in initiating what would become Operation Torch. If Vichy France still had hold over its respective colonies in Northwestern Africa perhaps both would cooperate in regards to stopping an amphibious invasion by the Western Allies.

[Michael Josef Schwendau]

Truely.... if Thors towers were held at the straights of Gibraltar the MED would have been a no go zone for the Allies to operate in. Forcing the British make the Cape run to the Red Sea and supply Egypt that way. Adding almost a month more at sea. With Italy and the African colonies in a secure position, I think the Vichy would have been more willing to fight. IT is a huge gamble.

As for the Greeks....

The German Army wasn't truely all mechanized nor mobile then either. The rapidity of there success were due to the Luftwaffe and the Panzer's. Man to man.... the Greeks did have a chance. Case in point is the battle of the Pass where 1.SS Auk.Abt. with Panzer Meyer and some Gerb's basically blasted the Greeks out of there positions with mountain howitzers.

Another great "What if" is if the Germans would have taken in the Ukranian front as an Ally. Stalin would have been in a very tight spot.

[Friedrich Werner]

Well I posed the question and I'll give me best spin on shit.

September 1940
After reading Mussolini's letter for help in the next month's operation against italy, Boris III was faced with several concerning issues were his country to get involved. Playing on a hope for greatness however, Boris saw this as the only oppertunity for his country to gain the lands that he believed were rightfully his. Britain had sided with Bulgaria receiving Dobrudzha from Rumania, however there was no way this support would come if the question of thrace's owernship was brought to the table. Boris replies to Mussolini that a secret offensive military alliance should be formed, however cooperation between the two was necessary. If Bulgaria was going to deploy the majority of its army to the south, Italy would need to relieve pressure for their attacks on the Mataxas line. Thus, Boris would point out, a small expeditionary force was far from appropriate for the amount of troops Bulgaria would be pouring into this action. Also, Italy should focus on mopping islands such as Corfus later, and instead put all attention towards the main penninsula campaign. The Italian Navy could easily encircle the western islands and prohibit the escape of Greek forces from those islands. A Push-back date for Bulgarian Operations to early November 1940 would allow Bulgaria time to mobolize, prepare defenses against a possible Turkish intervention, as well as allow Italy to mobolize several more Italian (not albanian) divisions. Bulgaria's experience would lead to the recommendation for the supply of clothing and equipment appropriate for fighting in the Balkans during the winter; an issue that historically plagued Italian success in the mountains. These specific orders Germany would gladly supply each country with without question. I think this preparedness would be recommeneded by Bulgaria (as well as required) and could place both armies in a strong position to launch offensive operations in winter time.

The Plan
The Italian plan would go as it had historically. However preference to the Albanian theather, instead of Africa, would be made clear by Italian high Command from the beginning. Instead of a small expeditionary force attacking the Greeks, a respectable italian force would be deployed to Albania. These forces would be pulled from the Italian/Yugo border relying that if Yugoslavia changed sides, Germany and Hungary would be in close proximity to lend a hand. Albanian Battalions would be used primarily for policing and supply, opposed to going primarily frontline. The Itais would look to make the first move, attacking the Greeks with a force that would require Greek forces stationed in Thrace and along the Macedonian border to reinforce the West. At the exact time these forces began to be transported West to face the italian threat, Bulgarian forces would pounce on Thrace focusing on cutting off North Eastern Greece and setting up a defensive line along the Struma River, and then capturing the key city of Kavala. Naturally this type of action would require large numbers of Bulgarian forces as several divisions would be needed to hold the Bulgarian borders against the far eastern portions of Greece and Turkey. It would be a gamble, but Bulgaria would hope that the Soviet/German relationship would prevent Russia from supporting any Turkish request to invade.

The Campaign would be broken into 3 Phases.
Phase I- Invasion of Northern Greece and the destruction of the Greek Navy (Fall/Winter 1940)
Phase II- Invasion of Southern Greece (Spring 1941)
Phase III- Island Mop-up (excluding Crete) [Spring-Summer 1941)

Phase I
After the offensive is launched Italy is met with intial successes. The Italians experience initial breakthroughs, and, thanks to the Bulgarian suggestions regarding the terrain, they're Alpini and regular army divisions are better prepared to conduct the mountainous campaign. Italian aircover is unfortunatly flawed by poor weather and Greek forces regroup and focus on reinforcing their western lines of defence as the famous push by the Italian Julia Division as well as several others are taking place in the Pindus mountains to the South (threatening encirclement). Just as this occurs, shit hits the fan. Bulgarian forces smash through the lightest Greek defenses (located near the Yugo-Bulg-Greek border. Greece's High Command is confused; Bulgaria only months before had been peaceful and proclaiming future neutrality and appeared in no way capable of launching any offensive. Britain is preoccupied with recovering from the Battle of Britain and strengtheing Egypt for an attack that Italian High Command decides to push back in favor of its Greek Campaign. Britain thus is in no way capable of properly supporting the Greeks until spring 1941 (but this idea appears by late Novemebr to be fruitless since Greece is unable to properly organize a strong defensive line. It might just be better to reinforce Crete and British possesions for now. Greek reserves are forced to split between both fronts and the forces allocated to holding the Bulgarian line are unable to peel away to help their comrades in the West. Now, mid November, Italian armies are begining to breakthrough the defensive lines that Greek reserve battalions are being forced to abandon so that they can move North East to face the Bulgarian threat and to try and regroup with their forces in Thrace. By 20 November the Bulgarians have a strong blocking line at the Struma river and have cutoff Greek supply to all of Thrace. Italian naval victories along with Bulgaria's 300 strong air wing is as well preventing Thrace from being reinforced from the Aegean. Starving, surrounded, confused and cutoff from High Command, Greek forces along the M. defense line along the Bulgarian border are forced to spread their defenses along its coasts and to the West to face the Struma Line.

An attempt is made to breakout to the West through the Bulgarian Struma Line by November 20th. The line is thin, however a lack of armor, mobile artillery and transportation make the fight a purely infantry squabble. Greek forces to the West encounter problems attacking across the Struma River (as it is Winter time) but by December Bulgarian forces along this line are being squeezed tight. The Greeks are making progress until ffinally supply issues arise. The encirclement by the Italian Navy and Bulgarian military is killing all endeavors to resupply Thrace from the south and west. Now, with the knowledge that Turkey wont be entering the fight, Bulgaria throws the majority of its divisions that are in holding positions along its two southern borders into the fray, fighting through the now thin M. Line, Thrace's Northern Front begins to collapse under the pressure. Italy by December has now broken through the mountainous western passes and is outside the Aegean port city of Thessalonik. All Greek forces staioned in the Greek/Macedonia border area are forced to abandon their attacks on the Struma line in order to save their own lives and to defend Thessalonik from capture. By the first week in Decemeber, with Italian forces from the West as well several naval landings along the Eastern Greek coastline, Italian forces begin to push through Thessalonik. After extremely heavy fighting the two northern Greek Corps begin to collapse. Confusion is the main Italian-Bulgarian weapon right now, with the Greek High Command unable to communicate with the North East. Only Greek heorism is saving whats left of their Northern forces, preventing the Bulgarians from joining up with the Italians at Thessalonik until Christmas 1940. Most Offensive operations cease at this time.

End State 1940
The new defensive line established by Italian forces stretched east to west along the river ____ (can't find right name unfortunatly), located just south of Thessalonik, and from there to the Greek city of Kozani, Grevena and then to the southern boundary of Albania. The Italian Navy continues to prevent Greek forces from reinforceing the mainland. Bulgaria spends the rest of the winter in heavy fighting taking the remainder of Thrace and north central Greece from entrenched Greeks in their mountian positions, however without supply again these greek forces can only last so long and are eventually forced to surrender. Yugoslavia offers no resistance even though they are shaken by Bulgaria's involvement in the conflict as they quickly realize they are encircled. This leads to a January 1941 signing of Yugoslavia with the other Axis powers. This decision allows Yugoslavia to keep the majority of its territory to the objection of both Italy and Bulgaria. However both of these countries are busy as it is with their new holdings and decide that another ally is better in the long run. Jugoslavian forces begin to bolster up the Italian line in central Greece and prepare for Operations in March. Bulgaria as well signs up with the Axis powers as early January 1941, and although victorious, concentrates on replacing its casualties and on invading the North Eastern Islands of the Aegean in April/May as well as repositioning itself along the now larger border it has with Turkey.


Let's just say I got creative here haha :D

[Friedrich Werner]

and easy on the What ifs, lets try and discuss one before we jump to 5 more. ;)

[August Schreiner]

Werner your speculation is nothing short of elaborate. Thanks for sharing it. Perhaps I will sound a bit contradictory here, but I do believe now that victory would have been secured IF all manifested in the way you stated it. This victory would especially be possible if the Regia Marina (Italian Royal Navy) and Bulgarian forces prevented Greek troops in Thrace and on the Metaxas line from receiving supplies. These manuevers in combination with Bulgaria commiting the majority of its forces and Italy sending in a larger initial force (not just an expeditionary force) with additional troops being sent in later makes it all plausible.

[Friedrich Werner]

Haha yea I added in the Jugoslavian part at the end because without them I don't think the Italians and Bulgarians would be capable of pushing into the South, or mopping up the majority of the islands. Crete is beyond a doubt out of their reach imo. Bulgarian forces would be victorious, but also exhuasted after the Fall 1940 Thrace campaign that I depicted, but I think greek forces in the north east would fall if confronted with a two front scenario with Italy putting more troops into the fray from the start (as well as continuing to reinforce their armies)

I think the Turkey issue is difficult to assess, but without Stalin's support I am leaning towards no Turkish intervention. Yugoslavia imo would go axis in January 41 if they were completely surrounded by pro facist and axis powers. As well they would probably get an expansion of their southern macedonian border were they to contribute substantial forces. Not to mention they would most likely be able to keep their territories that italy and Bulgaria received historically. A voluntary Axis Balkans is interesting to think about and I think Fall 1940-February 1941 is the only time this "voluntary" scenario would be possible.

Hope to see some creative rebutals ;)

[Michael Josef Schwendau]

Perhaps we are over looking something.... the Religious ideology side of the coin. Another flip of this coin is if the Machine would have pumped the Balkan regions with propoganda and agents to establish a 5th column based on religous purity. The Greeks being staunch defenders of the Orthodox faith have probably bought into it, historically they were skeptical of anyone who wasn't of the Christian faith. The Italians could have also absorbed them in as well, simply put that they were the cradle of Social Democracy and the Greeks are of a noble blood. Playing to peoples passions often win them.