What if #4

[Friedrich Werner]

(August 30, 1940)
What if Rumania does not comply with the decision for Hungary to receive Northern Transylvannia in the 2nd Vienna Award?

Reactions of:
Germany
Soviet Union
Hungary

If Rumania says no here, does Bulgaria even try to negotiate for Southern Dobruja that next month?

Where does King Carol II turn? The Iron Guard has strengthened and is pro-German, however it is also a highly nationalistic group. Their view on keeping this territory? Does Carol have to make appeasements to them to insure they won't use this opportunity to gain power. (Remember Ion Antonescu isn't promoted to Prime Minister until 7 days after the 2nd Vienna Award was decreed)

[August Schreiner]

I honestly doubt Romania would not comply with this decision, even if it costed Carol II and his administration more legitimacy. Romania and Hungary both having negative relations with each other as well conflicting territorial claims both saw this arbitration as necessary for regulation in the hands of the more bi-partisan Germans and Italians as necessary, so as to prevent further conflict. One has to remember that Romania lost a good deal of its resources in Bessarabia just 2 months earlier.

Anyways, if this did happen a border war may have erupted to the point where it may almost be a stalement, this would be especially so in regards to Ion Antonescu settling the issue through means of war, as he considered historically. The Romanian Army was large but the Hungarian Army by this time (see mixed brigades which were actually corps-sized higher units!) was also enlarged and enhanced with many new vehicles. Germany and Italy would ultimately broker this through a conference. Secret protocols would be adhered to in which Hungary would receive northern Transylvania and Romania in the future would regain Bessarabia, Northern Bukovina and in addition to make up for lost territory in the west, Tranistria would be acquired from Ukraine. These territorial acquisitions would of course come through war with the Soviet Union and Operation Barbarossa. In regards to Bulgaria with southern Dobrudja, perhaps they would have retracted their demands after all of these alternative conditions.